The US Industrial economy backtracked slightly again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as both industrial production and consumer-spending eased.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined for its 2nd week in a row, dropping to 116.2 (from last weeks 116.7). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the InvestorVillage site) the index started the week soft, then firmed midweek. In spite of the firming in the dailies, we are starting the month of September on the weak side, especially in contrast to August.
The paperboard-based Consumption Index also gave a little more ground (its 3rd down- week in a row), settling to 134.0 (from last weeks 134.2). In its dailies the measure looked strong (maintaining the prior weeks surge), though the "official" 28-day average (shown in the chart) could not reflect the strength as an equally strong week rolled off the back end of it's 4-week moving average.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) is continuing its pattern of re-accelerating decline.
Overall, the US industrial economy looks to continue to be underpinned by an excess of consumption over production, a recent surge in consumption, and the ever-declining Inventories measure.
Continuing concerns continue to be the dismal mood of the business/Investment side of the US citizenry (and its whithering effect on capitol/formation and new business starts), massive monetary outflows from the US (believed driven by demand from foreign sources for US dollars), and poor US monetary, fiscal, and political posturing.
-Robry825
