The US Industrial economy again backtracked last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as industrial production softened late-week on the heels of a week-long plunge in consumption.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined for its second straight week, slipping slightly to 118.1 (from last weeks 118.5). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the InvestorVillage site) the index was actually moderately firm throughout much of the week but softened sharply as the week closed.
The Consumption Index gave back a lot of ground (3rd off-week in a row), falling to 133.2 (from last weeks 140.8). In its dailies the measure extended and sharpened its pullback from its election-day peak, starting the week soft and declining sharply as the week progressed.
Overall, last week appears to be an important one... marking the re-emergence of risk (at least temporarily) to the economy, especially considering the coupling of rising equities and declining consumption. A decline in the markets (which itself is of sharply growing risk) would be (from a historical standpoint) additionally detrimental, and with last weeks loss of economic-inertia the full burden appears to shift to the Federal reserve.
Technically (and probably emotionally) the recovery remains intact. But we really, really, need to see those volatile consumption-dailies turn back up... and soon.
-Robry825
