The US Industrial economy (if pipeline scheduling is correct) continued its retreat last week along with consumer spending, while Washington's mid-week "scare-em-up" was a resounding success...sending consumers scurrying for cover.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) dropped for its third week in a row, dipping to 117.7 (vs last weeks revised 119.0), and is now at its lowest point since November 30th, 2010. In its raw dailies (above), the measure was somewhat firm vs the prior week, though the week was very soft once seasonal norms were added in.
The Consumption Index, now down for five straight weeks, dipped to 122.0 (from last weeks revised 125.3). In its raw dailies the measure was very week, and dismally weak Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as consumers looked as if they hunkered-down for the Presidential-Address / Republican-Debate Combo Wednesday & Thursday night, before finally scurrying out of the bomb shelter to buy a few necessities Friday.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), long in decline, is trying to flatten out as consumption has been falling faster that production.
Overall, gas-flows continue to look mushy, with the economy slowly receding from its May-31st peak... implying negative GDP growth for the third quarter is likely. Whether this present "micro-recession" extends long enough to become "official" looks to me to continue to be mostly dependent on the US Federal Reserve (who, judging by their actions, must like 9% unemployment)... with government having the ability to only make things worse, not better.
-Robry825
