The US Industrial economy turned and advanced last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), consumer spending continued to ease, and the calender-page turned to start the second quarter.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its string of four down-weeks in a row, gaining to slipped for it's fourth week in a row, easing to 120.9 (vs last weeks revised 120.4). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week started flat and finished strong. Seasonally-adjusted, there was a pronounced change precisely at quarters-end, with the first two days of April exceptionally strong.
The Consumption Index edged lower (second down-week in a row), dipping to 145.5 (from last weeks 148.1). In its dailies the week started soft but finished very strongly, paralleling the Production Index's quarters-end flip to positive..
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.
Overall, the recovery continues to appear strongly supported by elevated consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.
First-quarter results (due out starting in about 3 weeks) look to be exceptionally strong, as large gaps (in the past) of consumption over production have generally been consistent (in the modeling) with large jumps in profitability. And that gap widened at the end of the quarter... probably to add to optimism as CEO's prepare their comments toward the 2nd quarter.
(One has to wonder at that softening in the Production Index the last four weeks of the quarter... that looks to have ended in the gas-flows precisely at quarters-end. Makes one think industry is sandbagging... seeing a strong quarter coming and cutting production runs & inventory abnormally to cut expenses... to "juice" an anticipated strong quarter into a barn-burner.)
-Robry825
