The US Industrial economy held steady last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending continued to whittle away at it self.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) was unchanged in the latest week (breaking its string of two up-weeks in a row) at 121.4 (vs last weeks revised 121.4). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week was soft though in line with seasonals.
The Consumption Index again backtracked (fourth down-week in a row), dipping to 135.4 (from last weeks 141.9). In its dailies the week started somewhat soft-to-flat, then weakened midweek on.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.
For the moment, the recovery appears supported by the lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.
However, the declines in the Consumption Index are worrisome, and once past the Easter holiday we will need to see consumer spending reaffirm itself to keep fundamentals in place.
-Robry825
