The US Industrial economy (if pipeline scheduling is correct) backed off one more notch, as recently-strong consumption eased.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined for its fifth week in a row, slipping to 121.3 (vs last weeks 121.4). In its raw dailies (above) the week started soft but restrengthened sharply late in the week.
The Consumption Index broke it's string of three up-weeks in a row, slipping down to 140.0 (from last weeks revised 143.0). In its dailies the measure mildly followed the pattern of the production index (soft early then strengthening late).
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.
Internally, tension appears to remain within the economy between uncertain consumption and retreating industrial production, with steel-plant inputs (indicative of durable-goods) soft, and food-group scheduling bearishly strong. There is a glimmer of hope, however, in the late-week strengthening... if it can hold.
Overall, the economy appears adrift (following late Decembers "$40-a-week-payroll-tax-in-two-months" congressional signal). On the horizon that payroll tax increase (due the end of the month) is probably about to come back into focus, and how that gets dealt with probably shapes 2012 going forward.
Still waiting for Congress (and the Federal Reserve) to get their acts together.
-Robry825
