The US Industrial economy gained ground again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumption continued its slow retreat.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained for its second consecutive week, advancing to 122.7 (vs last weeks 121.9). In its raw dailies (above) the week began modestly firm then softened late.
The Consumption Index, conversely, declined for its third week in a row, falling to 137.6 (from last weeks revised 140.0). In its dailies the measure was firm throughout the week, although the overall index declined as an even stronger week fell off the back end of its 4-week moving average.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.
Internally, economic tension remains well-evidenced within the gas-flows (in stark contrast to the Fourth-Qtr-2011 flows which were clearly bullish almost to quarters end). The sea-saw nature of the Production & Consumption indexes (one climbs while the other falls, then vice-versa) is evidence that the "fulcrum" of the economy is unmovingly anchored in the mud.
The strength in the food-group last week was again worrisome. Food-group scheduling (now at strongly-bearish levels) has been contra-indicative to economic trends in the past, and its strengthening in here to such extremes is consistent with risk to the consumptive-end of the US economy.
Overall, the economy retains its adrift-look and continues to await cues as to which direction to turn.
-Robry825
