The US Industrial economy gave ground again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as consumption continued its surging ways.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) dropped for its second week in a row, declining to 121.8 (vs last weeks 122.6). In its raw dailies (above) the week was overall flat the first four days of the week then softened sharply Thursday-on.
Conversely, the Consumption Index surged (its third up-week in a row), rising to a record 157.6 (from last weeks 149.2). In its dailies the measure was strong all week.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.
The record-breaking consumptive-surge looks very good in here... with retail sales likely surging... and corporate profits implied at very healthy levels, especially given the caution implied in the production-side of the economy.
The declines in industrial activity (especially given the bullishness in consumption) is disheartening.
I am somewhat doubtful of recent media reports that are giving credit to mild weather for recent economic strength. While a help, this surge in consumption appears much greater than that.
Unfortunately, the easing of the production index takes away from all that... blunting potential retailing employment-gains with industrial-employment stagnation. Probably the real gainer in all this is imports. We will see.
Still, I like the consumption surge, and hope to see some follow through on the industrial end (especially on the transition to the second quarter on April 1st). That is, if that consumption can hold. But we have got to get some follow-through somewhere in the industrial scheduling, where (at first glance) only the Mining / Minerals group is surging in tandem with the consumption (paperboard) indicator.
-Robry825
