Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Tuesday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy advanced again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as consumption turned up after its previous pause.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) advanced for its third consecutive week, advancing to 123.2 (vs last weeks 122.7). In its raw dailies (above) the week was mildly soft.

The Consumption Index also gained (breaking its string of 3 down-weeks in a row), gaining to 138.1 (from last weeks revised 134.1). In its dailies the measure softened sharply mid-week.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

While it was good to (finally) see the two lead indexes (Production and Consumption) sync in the recent industrial advance, the advance still retains its weak look... with food-group scheduling hovering at highly-bearish levels, and steel-group scheduling (indicative of durable-goods) softening in the latest week.

Overall, the 2011-4th qtr strength is now long-gone... and the economy still looks adrift... awaiting cues as to which direction to turn.



-Robry825