Monday, February 28, 2011

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy pushed ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending turned and similarly gained.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained for its fourth week in a row, rising to 123.0 (vs last weeks record 122.5). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the Investor Village site) the index was mostly soft (vs the prior week) though firm late.

The Consumption Index broke its string of three down-weeks in a row, rising to 142.1 (from last weeks 141.7). In its dailies the measure was soft but benefited from seasonals.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Overall, the recovery continues to appear strongly supported by elevated consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, firmness in industrial gas-flow scheduling, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.



-Robry825

Monday, February 21, 2011

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy gained a little more ground last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while strong consumer spending continued to slowly ease.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) rose for its third week in a row, gaining to 122.4 (vs last weeks record 121.8). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the Investor Village site) the index started the week on the firm side, which carried through most of the week before softening on Friday.

The Consumption Index continued its recent trend of easing (third down-week in a row), edging down to 141.7 (from last weeks 142.4). In its dailies the measure saw the softness of the previous week carry throughout the week.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Of other interest, Food-group numbers finally softened (for a change) last week. The food-group has served as a very sharp contra-indicator in the past... soaring during the recession (nervous folks heading to the fridge???) and falling diring the recovery.

Overall (as last week) the recovery appears strongly supported by buoyant consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, firmness in industrial gas-flow scheduling, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.



-Robry825

Monday, February 14, 2011

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy ratcheted ahead again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while strong consumer spending eased off slightly.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained slightly to 121.8 (vs last weeks record 121.6). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the Investor Village site) the index started the week was choppy and a tad softer than the previous weeks strength, though firming late.

The Consumption Index eased off fo its second week in a row, edging down to 142.4 (from last weeks 145.0). In its dailies the measure was choppy and ended the week soft.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continued in its long-term decline.

Overall (as last week) the recovery appears strongly supported by buoyant consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, firmness in industrial gas-flow scheduling, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.

Of Concern remains the strength of the food group (a contra-indicator to consumption), suggesting a shallowness to the recovery in spite of its apparent breadth (suggested in the gas flows).


-Robry825

Monday, February 7, 2011

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy advanced slightly last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending paused.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) rose slightly to 121.6 (vs last weeks record 121.4). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the Investor Village site) the index started the week firm then softened Tuesday through to the weeks end. Mondays raw gas-flow tracking picked up 2.077 Billion Cubic Feet scheduled for delivery to US factories, another record for the tracking model.

The Consumption Index was revised higher for the past several weeks on pipeline-reported revisions. For the latest week, the measure slipped to 145.0 (from last weeks 145.8), though it did set a record on early-week strength. In its dailies the measure began the week a tad soft, softened sharply Monday, then recovered late-week.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continued in its long-term decline.

Overall, the recovery appears strongly supported by buoyant consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, firmness in industrial gas-flow scheduling, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.


-Robry825



Daily Tracking (Natural Gas Scheduled Deliveries)
=====================================

...............................Industrial..................Paperboard
Gas Day...............(Production)..............(Consumption)
-------------..............-------------------...........----------------------
01/28/11...............2.074r.(BCF)...........42.63r.(MMCF)

01/29/11...............2.065r.....................39.36r
01/30/11...............2.067......................39.77
01/31/11...............2.077......................29.45
02/01/11...............1.993......................31.69
02/02/11...............1.963......................30.97
02/03/11...............1.963......................35.53
02/04/11...............1.992......................40.18

02/05/11...............1.995i.....................42.23i