The US Industrial economy continued its rapid rise out of recession last week (If pipeline scheduling is correct), as gas-flow delivery scheduling on US pipelines continued to ramp.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) advanced for its 8th week in a row, and is now at its highest point since March 21st. In its dailies (as evidenced by the "Part 7" industrial daily posts on the IV-CWEI site) it was red-hot all week.
The recent pattern of ongoing upward-revisions to previous estimates also bullishly continued (as facilities have to adjust to the quick ramp-up in implied productive demand).
On a sector-by-sector basis (see part "8" posts on the IV-CWEI site) the steel sector (which led the other groups to the downside with a 75% drop in scheduling) is now leading on the upside and has more than doubled since its worst month ever (May). The auto sector (which also looked good good earlier this month), however remains in the dog-house, and Michigan (Robry's home state) remains in the out-house.
Michigan's unemployment rate topped 15% in June (worst in the nation) with 20% (one-in-five unemployed) in some regions. Michigan is not yet following the gas-flow ramp of the US, and unless it does soon Michigan will be decimated when/if these folks unemployment runs out (and they cut back personal spending further... tightening Michigan's contraction).
The Paperboard-based Consumption Index pulled off just a bit from last weeks all-time high, though still well above year-ago levels.
I remain leery (based upon Automotive gas-flow scheduling) that the Consumption index is somewhat overestimating the gains in consumption. One handicap of the Consumption Index is (because it is derived from gas-flows into cardboard-box manufacturing) is it doesn't touch merchandise that isn't packed in cardboard boxes (like Automobiles). So with gas-flows suggesting softness in the Auto-Sector (Which the model does not represent) and strength in non-auto (Which the model does represent) the non-auto strength gets imputed into the whole of US consumption by the model.
Now this is not to say that the US economy isn't advancing (the gas-flows evidence numerous signs of a rapid ramp in the economy). It is, however, to say that the Consumption Index (and the Inventory Index that makes use of it) look too fast on the consumption ramp-up. (It is also to say that Robry's models need improvement!)
The Inventory Index (given the Consumption & Production Indexes) has now given up all of its overhang, and is extending its deficit to year-ago levels... reflecting perhaps the long-term damage done to some industries (especially auto) by the length and severity of the recession, and the ineptitude of the government/feds to address it.
Overall, I continue to believe the industrial-recession ended at the May-28th Production-Index bottom, and anticipate a turning in the employment numbers in the month(s) ahead. With the implied inventory overhang now gone, and production lagging consumption by a wide margin, I believe the recovery has (to borrow a term from nuclear physics) reached its point of critical mass. As long as consumption holds at current levels, production should ramp up very quickly to meet it.
That is not to say that the economy is free of risk. There is always the risk of news events (acts of war/terrorism, natural catastrophes, political events/blunders, etc) that could cause consumers to panic, leading to a "double-dip" type recession. Momentum, however, appears (at least for the time being) on the side of recovery, and until that momentum gets broken, I see the recovery continuing.
-Robry825
