The US Industrial economy inched further ahead in the latest week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), amidst surging consumer spending.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) added its 18th advance in 19 weeks, and now stands higher than at any time since October 24th, 2008 (It bottomed May 28th), and at levels suggesting it has made up better than two-thirds of it's recessionary deficit. In its dailies (as evidenced by the "Part 7" industrial daily posts on the IV-CWEI site) the week softened sharply through midweek before regaining ground late.
Apart from the 28-day moving average of the Production Index, last week was the third down week in a row in the raw numbers, with seasonal adjustments for the last 2 weeks keeping the "official" 4-week measure trending higher.
The Paperboard-based Consumption Index (as last week) surged all week, closing out the week at an all-time high. The Consumption Index remains solidly above the Production Index... supporting the recent momentum of recovery.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) remains well-below pre-recessionary levels, adding inventory-rebuilding as another support-mechanism near-term to the economy.
Michigan (Robry's Home State) continues to be the bottom-of-the-barrel state, as Auto scheduling looks to be repeating its monthly strengthen-early-then-fall-apart cycle. There is now vigorous debate in Michigan as to whether to cut state spending (less money to citizens & state workers = less spending = kill the economy further) or to raise taxes (less money kept by taxpayers = less spending by them = kill the economy further). The ultimate Michigan Loose-Loose scenario.
Not to worry though. A group of Michigan's finest in Lansing has the ultimate legislative idea to stimulate the economy. They are going to pass a law to allow all the bars to stay open to 4am rather than 2am! True story! It is the perfect stimulus plan! Stimulative for Tavern Workers and waitstaff, stimulative for security personnel, stimulative for police enforcement and firefighters and tow-truck operators, stimulative for health-care and rehabilitation professionals, stimulative for the legal community, and stimulative for road workers and maintenance personnel.
Michigan will be back in the drivers seat in no time!
-Robry825
