The US Industrial economy pushed further ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), consumer spending continues to advance, and an apparently very strong 2009 Christmas-shopping season drew to a close.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) again gained ground in the latest week (2nd weekly gain in a row). The measure (now at 108.2) managed to take out September 2008's pre-plunge peak (108.1) though remains short of 2007's high of 110.2 (It bottomed May 28th 2009 at 86.7).
In its dailies (as evidenced by the "Part 7" industrial daily posts on the IV-CWEI site) the week was very strong early before fading slightly into the seasonal Christmas holidays.
The Paperboard-based Consumption also gained ground last week (third consecutive weekly advance following a string of six consecutive declines).
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continues to drop and remains well-below pre-recessionary levels.
The latest spike in industrial flows (with just days left until Christmas) is encouraging, as some of this will (if not shortly) be intended for post-Christmas delivery. Also encouraging... steel-sector gas-flows (which have been front and center in the recovery) looked very perky, and some of the economies poorest performers (such as the Auto and Lumber groups) have been doing quite well lately.
The present uptrend in consumer spending, the deficit of the Production Index to the Consumption Index, the deep and continuing decline of the Inventories Measure... all are supportive of the newly-commenced fourth leg up for the economy.
-Robry825
