Monday, May 10, 2010

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy turned and advanced sharply last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending gained.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) after four straight weeks of decline surged to a record high of 115.4 (from the prior weeks 113.8). In its dailies the week was firm throughout. The week held up especially well against seasonals, where May tends to be the weakest month of the year.

The paperboard-based Consumption Index also gained (for its third week in a row), rising to 128.3 (from the previous weeks 127.9).

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continued its seemingly never-ending decline.

The economy (at least for now) appears to remain supported by consumer spending (consumer spending is the leash that leads the dog of the economy), with the deficit of the Production Index to the Consumption Index, and the deep and continuing decline of the Inventories Measure continuing to affirm the economic recovery.

A lingering concern is the continuing lag in the Production vs Consumption Index, which continues to imply a shallowness in the productive end of the US economy... which is a continuing drag on employment and job-creation.




-Robry825