Monday, November 22, 2010

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy continued its post-election retreat last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as both industrial production and (especially) consumption backtracked.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gave ground for its third straight week, dropping to 117.2 (from last weeks 118.1). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the InvestorVillage site) the index actually looked supportive, starting the week very soft but firming up mid-to-late week, though it had trouble keeping up with seasonals.

The Consumption Index continued its sharp descent (4rd off-week in a row), falling to 127.3 (from last weeks 133.2). In its dailies the measure started the week very depressed, firmed only modestly midweek, then softened again through the weeks close.

Technically (and probably emotionally) the recovery remains intact with the consumption index still above the production index, although risk to the US economy appears very high for the moment, with the post-election loss of inertia (especially to consumption). But we really, really, need to see those volatile consumption-dailies turn back up... and quickly.