Monday, December 20, 2010

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy pushed ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), buoyed by reinvigorated consumer spending.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) advanced for its fourth week in a row, rising to 120.3 (from last weeks 119.8), and edging out its May-30th record high of 120.2. In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the Investor Village site) the index started off on the firm side then softened just a tad as the week progressed.

The Consumption Index had its second up-week in a row, recovering to 130.3 (from last weeks 123.3). In its dailies the measure softened just a tad but remained very strong relative to the previous several weeks..

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) broke its string of two-unchanged weeks, resuming its long-term decline.

Overall, the US industrial economy looks now to be strongly underpinned by an excess of consumption over production, the recent surge in consumption, and the resumption of declining Inventories measure.