Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy continued to backtrack last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending turned and (at least for the moment) showing a few signs of remaining life.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined for its third week in a row, dropping to 122.5 (vs last weeks 123.7). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week was choppy, though (as last week) ended with some weekend strength.

The Consumption Index conversely headed higher (its second weekly gain in a row), rising to 145.7 (from last weeks 143.2). In its dailies the measure had a nice reversal, starting very soft but firming sharply Wednesday-on

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Again a little bit better last week in steel-group scheduling, which inched up its June '11 average up to .154 (though still off a bit from May (.153) and well off of the May '10 recovery high (.206). Food-group scheduling again bearishly gained and continues to hover at record heights for the measure.

The US economy retains its dead-in-the-water look, waiting for whatever change-in-momentum comes along first, whether for good or for bad.

Concern remains for the imminent end of the Federal Reserves QE2 (and lack of QE3 commitment), and for the ongoing budgeting & spending standoffs in government. Getting a budgeting compromise that reduces budget deficits without draining liquidity from consumers (and thus slowing already-stagnant consumer spending), and without draining liquidity from an already-defensive business community (further constraining capitol-formation and hiring) will be an impossible stunt. Unless they plug the import-liquidity drain in the bottom of the bathtub (or the Federal Reserve replace it), bailing water from one end of the tub to the other isn't going to achieve anything!



-Robry825

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy backtracked last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending held at low levels.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined for its second week in a row, dropping to 123.7 (vs last weeks 124.2). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week began soft, strengthened slightly midweek, then ended soft.

The Consumption Index broke its 2-week string of losses and headed higher, gaining to 143.2 (from last weeks 137.5), mostly due to an extremely soft week falling off the end of its 28-day moving average. In its dailies the measure was choppy but generally soft throughout.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

A little bit better again last week in steel-group scheduling, which inched up its June '11 average up to .152 (though still off a bit from May (.153) and well off of the May '10 recovery high (.206). Food-group scheduling bearishly gained and hovers at record heights for the measure.

The US economy can best be described (judging strictly by the gas-flows) as dead-in-the-water... neither advancing nor declining overall... waiting for the winds of overall direction to show and replace the dead-calm, stagnant air of status-quo. Increments in retail sales appear to be covering up for decrements in bigger-ticket "durable-goods" sales, as a worried populace awaits.

Concern remains for the imminent end of the Federal Reserves QE2 (and lack of QE3 commitment), and for the ongoing budgeting & spending standoffs in government.



-Robry825

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy eased last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending worked lower.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its string of four straight weekly record highs and headed lower last week, dropping to 124.2 (vs last weeks ). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week was soft throughout.

The Consumption Index eased for its second week in a row, falling to 137.5 (from last weeks 139.8). In its dailies the measure was choppy but generally soft.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

A little bit better last week in some of the problem areas (Steel & Food) with steel-group scheduling inching up the June '11 average up to .149 (though still off a bit from May (.153) and well off of the May '10 recovery high (.206). Food-group scheduling (though a bit better than last week) still hovers at bearish heights.

Concern remains for the imminent end of the Federal Reserves QE2 (and lack of QE3 commitment), and for the ongoing budgeting & spending standoffs in government.



-Robry825

Wednesday Economic Updates and Corrections

Am (gladly) able to backtrack on yesterdays dire economics post. There was an error that overemphasized the drop off in industrial activity. While the economy is sluggish at present, it is no where near approaching that "point of no return" as feared within yesterdays post. A "corrected" commentary follows...

The US Industrial economy advanced meekly last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending softened.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained for the ninth time in the last ten weeks to 124.8 (vs last weeks revised 124.7). It was the fourth straight weekly record-high in a row for the index. In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week started firm but weakened midweek. (In the last two days, the index declined to 124.6)

The Consumption Index reversed its recent short-term surge, slumping to 139.8 (from last weeks 144.9). In its dailies the measure was very strong early through the 31st, Then ratcheted down sharply June 1st on.. (In the last two days, the index declined to 137.3)

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Steel-manufacturing scheduling dropped precipitously to start June (averaging .145 BCF/day, down from .153 in May and well below the recovery high of .206 in May of 2010). Steel-scheduling (though I haven't had a chance to roll it into these posts) is consistent with durable-goods orders, and its rapid-weakening had been a harbinger of recessions past.

Food-Group scheduling, which bearishly broke above previous-recession highs in April, also remains a worry. The Food group has a contra-relationship with consumption, and gains to the measure historically have tended to coincide with weakness in consumer spending.



-Robry825

Re. Yesterdays "Tuesday Night Economic Assessment"

Yesterdays "Tuesday Night Economic Assessment" is to be revised as an error was found and corrected relating to an error in the summarization of gas-flows (the fall-off in fundamentals is not nearly as dire as originally thought... keeping the US economy "in the game"... though we are still backtracking at the moment).

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy has turned into recession. That is the call as the US Industrial economy weakened suddenly and dramatically last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as the prior-weeks surge in strong consumer spending evaporated.

This is an early call and perhaps the recession can be aborted in its early stages (if the Federal Reserve acts Very quickly and the press can drop its negativism), but the seeds of a downward spiral have been planted. Otherwise, this will be my last weekly economics post until fundamentals swing back to positive.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) pulled away from its streak of three-record-highs in a row, tumbling to 120.4 (vs last weeks revised 124.7). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week was extremely soft.

The Consumption Index reversed its recent short-term surge, slumping to 139.8 (from last weeks 144.9). In its dailies the measure was very strong early through the 31st, Then ratcheted down sharply June 1st on..

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Steel-manufacturing scheduling dropped precipitously to start June (averaging .116 BCF/day, down from .146 in May and well below the recovery high of .206 in May of 2010). Steel-scheduling (though I haven't had a chance to roll it into these posts) is consistent with durable-goods orders, and its rapid-weakening had been a harbinger of the last recession as well.

Food-Group scheduling, which bearishly broke above previous-recession highs in April, is also strengthening. The Food group has a contra-relationship with consumption, and gains to the measure historically have tended to coincide with weakness in consumer spending.

The Federal Reserve needs to announce QE3 (or some other similar measures) very quickly. And we very much need a turn away from the bearishness in the press.



-Robry825

Tuesday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy gained ground again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), amidst a turn to very strong consumer spending.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained for the eighth time in the last nine weeks to 124.7 (vs last weeks revised 123.9). It was the third straight weekly record-high in a row for the index. In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week was firm throughout.

The Consumption Index shook off its recent short-term weakness, gaining to 144.9 (from last weeks 143.7). In its dailies the measure was very soft early, showed signs of life Monday, then surged abruptly Wednesday-on.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Took some time off last weekend and made it a longer Memorial-Day weekend (hence the "Tuesday-Night" rather than the traditional "Sunday Night Economic Assessment". In the intervening two days, both the Production and Consumption Indexes gained to 125.1 and 145.1, respectively.



-Robry825