The US Industrial economy backtracked last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending held at low levels.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined for its second week in a row, dropping to 123.7 (vs last weeks 124.2). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week began soft, strengthened slightly midweek, then ended soft.
The Consumption Index broke its 2-week string of losses and headed higher, gaining to 143.2 (from last weeks 137.5), mostly due to an extremely soft week falling off the end of its 28-day moving average. In its dailies the measure was choppy but generally soft throughout.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.
A little bit better again last week in steel-group scheduling, which inched up its June '11 average up to .152 (though still off a bit from May (.153) and well off of the May '10 recovery high (.206). Food-group scheduling bearishly gained and hovers at record heights for the measure.
The US economy can best be described (judging strictly by the gas-flows) as dead-in-the-water... neither advancing nor declining overall... waiting for the winds of overall direction to show and replace the dead-calm, stagnant air of status-quo. Increments in retail sales appear to be covering up for decrements in bigger-ticket "durable-goods" sales, as a worried populace awaits.
Concern remains for the imminent end of the Federal Reserves QE2 (and lack of QE3 commitment), and for the ongoing budgeting & spending standoffs in government.
-Robry825
