The US Industrial economy (if pipeline scheduling is correct) backtracked last week, while consumer spending continued to retreat and the Federal Reserve sat on its hands.
The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its three-week string of gains, backing off a notch to 120.0 (vs last weeks revised 120.2). In its raw dailies above, the measure was bland.
The Consumption Index extended its fall for a third week-in-a-row, slipping to 132.1 (from last weeks 139.6). In its dailies the measure was likewise bland (to production) except for Monday's comparison with the previous weeks anomaly.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.
Overall, gas-flows look like mush, with the economy dead-in-the-water, though employment (not business profitability) looks to be taking the hit at present.
Federal Reserve starting to look like it is becoming politically paralyzed... with some leading Republican-presidential-wannabes sending strong signals of stimulus-intolerance (Perry) or Federal-Reserve menevolence (Ron Paul), while the Democratic party (and president) 2012-hopes get eaten alive by the economy.
If so, the entire burden of monetary expansion falls to the US government... to expand the pseudo-money supply (by way of deficit spending) at the sole cost of inflating government debt, as the US dollar holds firm... and $2 billion-a-day of US liquidity continues to get siphoned from the US economy.
(Wild-speculation department... Perry campaign gets killed from within (by its own staffers), Romney from without (boredom), and Ron Paul takes the Republican Primaries and the Presidency in 2012. Possible Democratic "Hail-Mary"... Democrats accept the Republican balanced-budget amendment idea (it gets forced anyway in next few years) in return for token higher Republican Taxes, then fire the whole of the Federal Reserve board and ... ... ...) (That is, if the Federal Reserve is freezing up politically and unemployment retakes double digits.)
-Robry825
