The US Industrial economy continued to push ahead (if pipeline scheduling is correct), consumer spending remains strong, and signs of a very early Christmas shopping rush are abundant.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) added its 23nd advance in 25 weeks, and now stands higher than at any time since October 2nd, 2008 (It bottomed May 28th).
In its dailies (as evidenced by the "Part 7" industrial daily posts on the IV-CWEI site) it was firm though off just a tad from the previous weeks blistering pace.
On a sector-by-sector basis (as per the "Part 8" posts) the steel delivery natgas scheduling remains very firm (steel has been front-and-center in the recovery) and we are having a good strong month (vs the previous month) in the paper, chemical, fertilizer, refining, auto, mining, building materials and Agriculture & Livestock groups.
The Paperboard-based Consumption Index again softened in its latest week, though in its dailies it gained ground and remains well above the Production Index, supporting the recent momentum of industrial recovery.
Within its dailies, the consumption index (though it advanced) did not attain the ramp implied by seasonal factors, presumably because it attained that ramp prematurely weeks ago when the Christmas shopping rush looks to have begun early.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continues to drop and remains well-below pre-recessionary levels. Once inventory-rebuilding kicks in (assuming nothing tries to derail the economy), another meaningful surge in the industrial economy (and natgas demand) is unavoidable.
-Robry825
