The US Industrial economy gave something back last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as did consumer spending.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) slipped for the second straight week, dipping to 114.5 (from the prior weeks 115.0), In its dailies the week defied seasonal patterns and appeared steady & little changed from the prior holiday week.
The paperboard-based Consumption Index reversed its gains from the prior week and edged back to 125.0 (from the previous weeks 127.1), In its dailies the week was soft early, firmed briefly mid-to-late-week, then softened again Friday into the weekend.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) for the gazillianth week-in-a-row continued its descent.
Overall, gas-flows suggest the recovery remains intact for the moment, though signs of stain are increasing... leading one to wonder if the recovery could loose its initiative.
One area of increasing concern are imputs to food processing facilities (See the "Food" group on the IV-CWEI "Part-8 Sector Demand" posts). Scheduled gas flows into food plants have been steadily increasing as of late, but this is not a healthy sign for the economy as food tends to be a contra-indicator (probably because as America becomes more nervous, it heads to the fridge).
(Now in the sarcastic corner of my mind, I have been weighing a consumer confidence index derived from Food-Plant imputs... which are predominantly comfort food (junk food produced from dozens of facilities) such as snack-cakes, cookies, chips, pop bottling plants, cattle-feeders, fried chicken plants, etc... I could call it the "Refrigerator index"... Then you all would know that I had lost my mind!)
Overall, the deficit of the Production Index to the Consumption Index, and the deep and continuing decline of the Inventories Measure continue to underpin the economic recovery. Remaining a concern is the continuing lag in the Production vs Consumption Index, which continues to imply a shallowness in the productive end of the US economy... which is a continuing drag on employment and job-creation.
-Robry825
