The US Industrial economy again pushed ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct) while consumer spending eased slightly.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) scored its seventh rise in as many weeks, gaining to 115.1 (from the prior weeks 114.4), and achieved its fourth record high in a row. In its dailies the week followed seasonal trends showing firmness early before settling down into the start of the easter holiday.
For the fourth week in a row the paperboard-based Consumption Index again bucked the trend and dropped to 125.7 (from the previous weeks 126.2), In its dailies the week was soft and choppy.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continued to slow its decline.
Overall, the deficit of the Production Index to the Consumption Index, and the deep and continuing decline of the Inventories Measure continue to underpin the economic recovery. The ongoing drop-off in the consumption index remains the largest concern, and could stunt the forward-momentum of the recovery should it not soon reverse (Though the consumption index is a very volatile index... mirroring the emotional volatility of the consumer).
Also remaining a concern is the continuing lag in the Production vs Consumption Index, which continues to imply a shallowness in the productive end of the US economy... which is a continuing drag on employment and job-creation.
-Robry825
