Monday, September 20, 2010

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy gave back a little more ground last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer-spending rose aggressively.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) backtracked (its 3rd down week in a row), dropping to 115.2 (from last weeks 116.2). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the InvestorVillage site) the index started the week firm, then softened a bit late-week. September (vs its seasonals) continues to look soft, especially in contrast to the month of August.

The paperboard-based Consumption Index conversely turned around and gained ground (breaking a string of three down weeks in a row), rising to 139.2 (from last weeks 134.0). In its dailies the measure looked strong.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) is continuing its pattern of re-accelerating decline.

Overall, the US industrial economy (in spite of the last 3 weeks) looks to continue to be firmly underpinned by an excess of consumption over production, a recent surge in consumption, and the ever-declining Inventories measure.

Continuing concerns continue to be the dismal mood of the business/Investment side of the US citizenry (and its whithering effect on capitol/formation and new business starts), massive monetary outflows from the US (believed driven by demand from foreign sources for US dollars), and poor US monetary, fiscal, and political posturing.




-Robry825