The US Industrial economy eased again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer-spending inched ahead a little more.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) declined again (its 4rd down week in a row), dropping to 114.2 (from last weeks 115.2). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the InvestorVillage site) the index started the week soft, then firmed just a bit late-week. September (vs its seasonals) continues to look soft, especially in contrast to the month of August.
The steel sector looked quite strong last week (in spite of flat automotive scheduling). Steel lead both the recession and recovery over the past couple years, and climbing steel scheduling is quite a welcome sign for the possibility of a stronger November.
The paperboard-based Consumption Index gained a little more ground (second up weeks in a row), rising to 139.5 (from last weeks 139.2). In its dailies the measure started the week very strong through Tuesday, then declined sharply through Saturday before turning up somewhat Sunday (as if something spooked the public Tuesday night?).
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) is continuing its pattern of re-accelerating decline.
Overall, the US industrial economy (in spite of the last 3 weeks) looks to continue to be firmly underpinned by an excess of consumption over production, a recent surge in consumption, and the ever-declining Inventories measure.
Continuing concerns continue to be the dismal mood of the business/Investment side of the US citizenry (and its whithering effect on capitol/formation and new business starts), massive monetary outflows from the US (believed driven by demand from foreign sources for US dollars), and poor US monetary, fiscal, and political posturing.
-Robry825
