Monday, March 7, 2011

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy gave back a little last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending strengthened.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its string of four up-weeks in a row, dipping to 122.4 (vs last weeks record 123.0). In its dailies (See the "Part 7" posts on the Investor Village site) the index was soft (vs the prior week) throughout.

The Consumption Index conversely had its second weekly gain in a row, gaining to 145.9 (from last weeks 142.1). In its dailies the measure (as last week) was soft in its raw (non-seasonally adjusted) numbers but benefited from seasonals.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continued in its long-term decline.

Overall, the recovery continues to appear strongly supported by elevated consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, recent firmness in industrial gas-flow scheduling, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.