Monday, March 14, 2011

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

(My heart goes out to the many suffering in the wake of the devastation in Japan, where tens of thousands have doubtlessly perished (and multitudes been left homeless) in the trampling footsteps of a massive earthquake and tsunami, and those who face the difficult and daunting task of putting things back together in the face of the further fear of a possible nuclear-reactor-meltdown catastrophe.)

The US Industrial economy again eased off a tad last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumer spending continued to strengthen.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) put in its second down-week in a row, easing to 121.9 (vs last weeks 122.4). In its dailies (raw, non-seasonally adjusted flows) the week started soft but firmed as the week progressed.

The Consumption Index went the other way (having its third weekly gain in a row), gaining to 147.1 (from last weeks 145.9). In its dailies the week (as last week) looked soft in its raw (non-seasonally adjusted) numbers but benefited from seasonals.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued in its long-term decline.

Overall, the recovery continues to appear strongly supported by elevated consumer-spending, an uncharacteristically-large lead in the Consumption Index over the Production Index, recent firmness in industrial gas-flow scheduling, and continuing declines in the Inventories measure.



-Robry825