Monday, April 16, 2012

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy pushed forward again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while consumption continued to back away from its March surge.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) advanced for its second week in a row, rising to 122.0 (from last weeks 121.0). In its raw dailies (above) the week started firm on Sunday but quickly gave ground and finished off the week soft.

The Consumption Index declined (its third consecutive down-week) to 145.5 (from last weeks record 151.3). In its dailies the week started somewhat firm (to the previous week) but softened late.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

The split between industrial bearishness and consumptive bullishness (that dominated 2012's first quarter) should be conducive to healthy (and growing) 1st quarter earnings, though the defensiveness (so evident in the industrial flows) looks to be trying to seep into equities.

A lot of uncertainty remains this week as we emerge from the cross-currents of the Easter-Holiday period to settle into trends as the workweek unfolds.