Monday, April 23, 2012

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy inched ahead again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as consumption turned and added to its recent strength.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) rose for its third week in a row, rising to 122.6 (from last weeks revised 122.1). In its raw dailies (above) the week actually was quite soft throughout, with the "Official" index rising mainly due to a softer week dropping off the end of its moving average.

The Consumption Index broke its recent string of three consecutive down-weeks and advanced, edging up to 145.8 (from last weeks 145.5). In its dailies the measure appeared unusually steady and (overall) averaged about the same as the prior week.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

Overall, however, the internals retain that "sickly" look that they have exhibited throughout 2012, and as we emerged from the Easter Holidays looked somewhat bland (neither good nor bad).

Very disappointing how that March consumer-surge was ignored by the industrial side of the flows... as if that consumer-optimism was wasted on the productive end of US society.

Did note a sharp weakening in refinery scheduling (more than seasonals would imply) over the week and (in the latest days preliminary flows) a bearish sharp tightening in food-group flows and sharp weakening in industrial flows, that (as I saw no news) I am hoping to be bad data that gets revised tomorrow.