Monday, March 1, 2010

Sunday Night Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy pushed ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while already-robust consumer spending inched higher.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained for the second week in a row, rising to 111.7 from the prior weeks 111.3. In its dailies (as per the "Part 7" industrial daily posts on the IV-CWEI site) the week started somewhat firm and strengthened through Friday.

The paperboard-based Consumption Index also gained (for its fourth week-in-a-row), rising to 140.7 from the previous weeks 140.4. In its dailies the week was volatile, starting strong but falling off sharply midweek.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued it's decline.

Overall, maintained firmness in consumer spending, the deficit of the Production Index to the Consumption Index, and the deep and continuing decline of the Inventories Measure... all continue to underpin the economy, though flows still exhibit a stagnant-look which is worrisome. The continuing lag in the Production vs Consumption Index continues to hint to a shallowness in the productive end of the US economy... which is a continuing drag on employment and job-creation.