The US Industrial economy again gained ground last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct), while already-robust consumer spending continued to slowly ease.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) pushed ahead for the fourth week in a row, rising to 113.0 (from the prior weeks 112.4), taking out its Feb-1st high (112.5). In its dailies (as per the "Part 7" industrial daily posts on the IV-CWEI site) the week was softer throughout from the prior week.
The paperboard-based Consumption Index went the other way, dropping to 134.8 from the previous weeks 137.9 (second down-week in a row). In its dailies the week was very soft, continuing to 17 days the pronounced midweek easing of three weeks ago.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again continued its never-ending chant of down-down-down.
Overall, the deficit of the Production Index to the Consumption Index, and the deep and continuing decline of the Inventories Measure continue to underpin the economy. The sudden drop-off in the consumption index dailies is a big concern, should it not reverse soon (Though the consumption index is a very volatile index... mirroring the emotional volatility of the consumer). Also of concern is the continuing lag in the Production vs Consumption Index, which continues to imply a shallowness in the productive end of the US economy... which is a continuing drag on employment and job-creation.
-Robry825
