Finally an up week for the US Industrial economy (if pipeline scheduling is correct), as industrial production turned and worked higher, while consumer spending (though declining for the week) showed signs of a rebound late.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its string of four down weeks and advanced to 117.7 (from last weeks 117.4). In its dailies the week started modestly then strengthened as the week progressed.
The paperboard-based Consumption Index dipped for its second week in a row, dropping to 123.9 (from last weeks 124.1). In its dailies the measure started soft but firmed throughout the week, and looked very strong in this weekends preliminary scheduling (should that scheduling hold).
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) once again declined, though the momentum within its decline has definately slowed.
Last week was a very important week and was to be watched closely as it marked both the beginning of a new month and the beginning of a new quarter. Big changes within the gas flows tend to like to happen at such transitory points between months or quarters, as factories & retailers adjust to changing trends in orders and inventories in their scheduling of production and purchases for the upcoming new month or quarter.
Last week did not disappoint, as good things seemed to occur within the dailies of both the Consumption Index and Production Index. We will hope it is not some aberration related to the July 4th holiday weekend as the support underpinning the recovery (the indicated excess of consumption over production) has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks... threatening recovery.
With high levels of stress within the business & investing sector of US society (implied by the ongoing lag of production to consumption and the decline of the inventories measure) the burden of recovery continues to be laid fully (as always) on the consumer.
-Robry825
