The US Industrial economy inched ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct) as industrial production advanced slightly, while consumer spending meandered higher.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) gained for its third week in a row, advancing slightly to 118.7 (from last weeks 118.5). In its dailies the week was soft throughout, though not out of line with seasonal expectations (we are at the end of the traditional July retooling period).
The paperboard-based Consumption Index broke a string of three down-weeks in a row and decided to turn higher, gaining to 123.4 (from last weeks 122.8). In its dailies the measure started week but firmed late into the weekend.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) continued its pattern of decelerating decline.
On balance, the economic advance (from the perspective of gas flows) looks to be meekly continuing, though its cushion (the ongoing excess of consumption over industrial production) remains thin and well off of the healthy look it had in previous months.
Next week is an important one for watching, as we should be getting a spurt Monday-on from the exit of the Seasonal retooling period. We really need for this to hit, and especially to hit consumer spending (to pump up the cushion between consumption and industrial production).
-Robry825
