The US Industrial economy advanced again last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct) as industrial production pushed higher, while consumer spending shook off its Pre-July-4th spurt and continued to soften.The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) rose for the second week in a row, climbing to 118.5 (from last weeks 117.7). In its dailies the week started strong (especially given the July 4th holiday) but weakened as the week progressed into the seasonal July retooling period.
The paperboard-based Consumption Index slipped for its third week in a row, dropping to 122.8 (from last weeks 123.9). In its dailies the measure started very strong but quickly weakened as the week unfolded.
The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index) again declined, though the momentum within its decline continues to slow.
There are mixed signals behind July's strength... The weakness in implied consumer spending casts worry, yet the Food Sector (see "Part 8" post on the Investor Village CWEI Board) is bullishly continuing its decent from its April 2010 peak (The Food-Sector sampling has been a good contra-indicator throughout the recession... and is suggestive of continued improvements in consumer self-confidence).
On balance, the economic advance (from the perspective of gas flows) looks to be meekly continuing though its cushion (the ongoing excess of consumption over industrial production) is being eaten away.
-Robry825
