Monday Morning Economic Assessment

Within the fog of the traditional first-two-weeks-of-July retooling period, the US Industrial economy again appeared to edge lower (if pipeline scheduling is correct) as both industrial-production and consumption declined.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) had its second down-week in a row, dipping to 123.6 (from last weeks 124.6). In its raw dailies (above) the week started soft early then firmed late vs the prior weeks trends.

The Consumption Index likewise turned lower (breaking its 3-in-a-row string of gains), retreating to 153.5 (from last weeks revised 154.4). In its dailies the measure started soft but firmed as the week progressed.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

Overall (with the retooling and the quarterly-changeover) it is difficult to gauge the economy again this week. Next week the fog is gone so we should get a better picture.



-Robry825

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy backtracked last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct) while consumption edged forward, as the US entered its traditional first-two-weeks-of-July retooling period.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its 3-week string of gains, dropping to 124.6 (from last weeks 125.5). In its raw dailies (above) the week was soft throughout, maintaining the ratchet lower on the prior-weeks US Supreme Court healthcare decision.

The Consumption Index conversely gained (its third consecutive up-week in a row), rising to 154.7 (from last weeks 152.4). In its dailies the measure softened sharply from the prior week.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

But overall (with the retooling and the quarterly-changeover) it is difficult to gauge the economy this week (just two-much statistical noise that is impossible for the models to resolve) and even the seasonal-adjustments are questionable (given the change in dynamics between recent years and the models history).

For the moment, the economy is hard to judge, and will continue so until we emerge from the retooling period starting at the beginning of next week.




-Robry825

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy pushed further ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct)... as both production and consumption advanced in front of the traditional first-two-weeks-of-July retooling period, and the US-Supreme Court sided towards government (and consumers) in its landmark Thursday health-care decision.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) had its third straight up-week in a row, gaining to 125.5 (from last weeks 125.1). In its raw dailies (above) the week was generally soft, especially Tuesday on. There was little change to the surrounding Thursdays court decision.

The Consumption Index also rose (for its second week in a row), gaining to 152.4 (from last weeks 146.6). In its dailies the measure was strong most of the week, with a pronounced uptick starting Friday (after the Supreme Court ruling).

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

Overall, internals have turned supportive, with food-group scheduling bullishly backing off of its highs before the turn in consumption while the extremely-defensive industrial sector continues to tread well behind the reviving consumer sector.




-Robry825