Monday, July 16, 2012

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

Within the fog of the traditional first-two-weeks-of-July retooling period, the US Industrial economy again appeared to edge lower (if pipeline scheduling is correct) as both industrial-production and consumption declined.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) had its second down-week in a row, dipping to 123.6 (from last weeks 124.6). In its raw dailies (above) the week started soft early then firmed late vs the prior weeks trends.

The Consumption Index likewise turned lower (breaking its 3-in-a-row string of gains), retreating to 153.5 (from last weeks revised 154.4). In its dailies the measure started soft but firmed as the week progressed.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

Overall (with the retooling and the quarterly-changeover) it is difficult to gauge the economy again this week. Next week the fog is gone so we should get a better picture.