Monday, July 9, 2012

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy backtracked last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct) while consumption edged forward, as the US entered its traditional first-two-weeks-of-July retooling period.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) broke its 3-week string of gains, dropping to 124.6 (from last weeks 125.5). In its raw dailies (above) the week was soft throughout, maintaining the ratchet lower on the prior-weeks US Supreme Court healthcare decision.

The Consumption Index conversely gained (its third consecutive up-week in a row), rising to 154.7 (from last weeks 152.4). In its dailies the measure softened sharply from the prior week.

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

But overall (with the retooling and the quarterly-changeover) it is difficult to gauge the economy this week (just two-much statistical noise that is impossible for the models to resolve) and even the seasonal-adjustments are questionable (given the change in dynamics between recent years and the models history).

For the moment, the economy is hard to judge, and will continue so until we emerge from the retooling period starting at the beginning of next week.