Monday, July 2, 2012

Monday Morning Economic Assessment

The US Industrial economy pushed further ahead last week (if pipeline scheduling is correct)... as both production and consumption advanced in front of the traditional first-two-weeks-of-July retooling period, and the US-Supreme Court sided towards government (and consumers) in its landmark Thursday health-care decision.

The Production Index (In terms of its 28-day moving average of gas-flow scheduling into US industrial facilities) had its third straight up-week in a row, gaining to 125.5 (from last weeks 125.1). In its raw dailies (above) the week was generally soft, especially Tuesday on. There was little change to the surrounding Thursdays court decision.

The Consumption Index also rose (for its second week in a row), gaining to 152.4 (from last weeks 146.6). In its dailies the measure was strong most of the week, with a pronounced uptick starting Friday (after the Supreme Court ruling).

The Inventories measure (the cumulative weekly difference between the Production Index and the Consumption Index), continued its long-term decline.

Overall, internals have turned supportive, with food-group scheduling bullishly backing off of its highs before the turn in consumption while the extremely-defensive industrial sector continues to tread well behind the reviving consumer sector.